- Hindutva News Analysis -
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New York, with inputs from our Washington Bureau:
Osama Bin Laden is holed-up in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
Taking a hard look at the chain of events we believe that Osama is these days holed up in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. As the anti-Taliban raid on Tora Bora unravels itself a story emerges. Had Bin Laden still been there, his fighters would not have even spoken of surrendering, as the airwaves intercepted after the Daisy Cutter exploded, indicate. Again, Bin Laden does what he does not say and says what he does not want to do. This is evident from the conflicting stories he has released through his tapes about his complicity in the 9/11 attacks.
And as he has been circulating stories that he is personally directing the battle of Tora Bora; we can concur that he is not there. Since he says that he will die in full glare of TV cameras at the hands of his son; we can concur that he wants to escape and fight.
Now to escape and fight, we have to presume that he is today safely holed up away from the trap that is closing in around Tora Bora. His desperadoes are keeping up the fight to tie down the anti-Taliban and the US special forces at Tora Bora, while their leader is planning his next move from a different location.
Ideally this different location has to be such which would be contiguous to his earlier location, but where is not under attack today. The logical candidate for such a location is inside Pakistan, adjoining the Afghan border. He knows that the US and anti-Taliban forces would not immediately cross into Pakistan, even in hot pursuit. The US will have to tell Pakistan in advance (as they did in 1998, when they sent Tomahawks over Pakistani airspace) to avoid a dirty clash between US and Pakistani forces.
What can the US do, when Bin Laden is not found at Tora Bora?
In this scenario, that will unfold itself over the next few days, as the noose closes around Tora Bora, without a whiff of Bin Laden; what can the US do? They can eventually go in hot pursuit into Pakistan or they can ask the Pakistanis to nab him. What if the Pakistanis fail to deliver him - dead or alive? Then the US forces will have to extend operations into Pakistan and ask the Pakistani military to work alongwith the US special forces, as did the Northern Alliance troops. It would be an interesting scene to see the US pursuing its quarry inside Pakistan.
The US has prepared the ground work for this eventuality. They have overflying rights over Pakistani skies. They have taken over the four airfields at Pasni, Jacobabad, Panjgor, and Dalbandin. They have extended "co-operation" to the Pakistani authorities, to beef up security at Pakistani airports and nuclear installations. Today the US can deploy forces all across Pakistan, at only a few hours notice. What would be interesting would be to see what declared policy President Pervez Musharraf follows and what would be the hidden agenda of the anti-US Jihadi segments of the Pakistani military, once the US Special forces start operating openly over large tracts across Pakistan.
In the pursuit of Bin Laden; Pakistan would be lined up as the next theater of the war against Terror
We guess there will be a widespread anti-US Jihadi upsurge against the American forces, and also against those sections of the Pakistani army that would work for the US. A civil war situation would prevail till the Jihadis are crushed, as happened in Afghanistan with the Taliban. Whether Bin Laden is found dead or alive at the end of the Pakistan chapter of the War against Terror is an open question. But what is certain is that Pakistan would be lined up as the next theater of the war against Terror. The pursuit of Bin laden would be the proximate cause for extension of the war into Pakistan. The events in the next few days will bear this out.
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