- Hindutva News Analysis -
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New York, with inputs from our Washington Bureau:
Scenario -1 of the Post War Phase
A Peep into the Mind of President Pervez Musharraf
Now with the fall of the Taliban and Saddam; Pervez Musharraf has been trying hard to keep the balance between pleasing the US and keeping the restive Jihadis within Pakistan (the MMA, Jamaat,etc) under control. He has been trying to ensure domestic pease by pushing into Indian Kashmir, those Jihadis who have been pouring into Pakistan. Thus he could keep Pakistan peaceful, while creating trouble for arch-enemy India. To prevent them from staying on in Pakistan, he would crack down on those Jihadis who enter his country and try to create trouble for him for having helped the US in bringing about the fall of the Taliban. He would want to ensure that these elements do not stay on in Pakistan to cause him headaches, but go on to Kashmir to create ulcers for the Indians
In this context the Indians would do well to be far more ruthless with the Jihadis. The Indians can afford to be as ruthless as they can with the Jihadis, since there is no domestic pro-Jihadi constituency that they have to cater to as has Pervez Musharraf. And by assuring death to the Jihadis, the Indian Govt can try to ensure that the Jihadis find staying in Pakistan more attractive.
Scenario - 2 of the Post War Phase
Will Hamid Karzai kill Omar?
In the hoary tradition of honor killings and tribal revenge, it quite possible that Afghan Prime Minister Designate Hamid Karzai has dangled the carrot of amnesty before Omar, to draw him out and get Omar into his clutches. Once Omar is at his mercy, Karzai may well follow the tribal rules of blood feud and honor killings to avenge the killing of his father at the orders of Omar. Let's watch and see if this happens.
Scenario -3 of the Post War Phase
Punjabi Honor at low ebb in Pakistan
With the defeat of the Taliban and the consequent eclipse of Pakistan in the eyes of the Punjabi lobby, President Pervez Musharraf will be looked upon by this lobby in the Pakistani Military and establishment, as one who has caused the eclipse of Pakistan (and also of consequently of the Punjabi lobby which is the ruling elite of that country). Will the Punjabi lobby allow the loss of Afghanistan to go unavenged? We do not think so. The question is what will they do.
One - they may topple the Mohajir Musharraf; Two - they may try to de-stablize Afghanistan by playing the Pasthuns (their traditional support base inside Afghanistan). They may provoke the Pashtuns to demand an increasingly larger share of power at Kabul. A demand that will be resented by the Tajik Northern Alliance. The Uzbeks are already wounded tigers and they may join forces with the Pashtuns to bake their own cake. The next few days will see three capitals in Afghanistan. The Pashtuns will rule from Kandahar (and Kabul), the Tajiks from Khwaja-Bahauddin (Panjshir) and Kabul; and the Uzbeks from Mazar-e-sharif.
The next phase of the Afghan civil war would be stoked by the Punjabi Pakistanis. This may not happen immediately, but is sure to happen sooner rather than later.
Scenario -4 of the Post War Phase
The Partition of Pakistan
One fallout of this could be that all Pashtuns (on both side of the Durand Line from Afghanistan and Pakistan) may unite against their three enemies - the Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Punjabis. This could lead to split of both Afghanistan and Pakistan into Tajik, Uzbek, Pashtun, Punjabi sub-nations. The Sindhis may fall back under Indian influence and the Balouchs under Iranian.
These are some trends that we see today. And they would fit very well into the overall global gameplan to divide the Muslims into warring factions feuding amongst themselves. With as few Western casualties as possible, limited to those by friendly fire -as happened during the gulf war; with the West limiting itself to the high technology warfare in the skies. We say that the internecine Muslim war between the Taliban and other Afghans; with Pakistan breaking ranks with its protégé when the crunch came, will be replicated in different theaters as the War against Terror enters the 2nd phase. Lets see who fights whom in this phase to ensure achievement of the ultimate aim of this war - the destruction of all terrorists and all those who support and shelter them and of all those who share their ethos.
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