- Hindutva News Analysis -
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Islamabad, with inputs from correspondents at New Delhi, Srinagar and Doha:
The clash of Pakistani Rangers with a band of Taliban militiamen at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border recently was a seminal event. The two countries have been in the thick of camaraderie since the last 20 years, with Pakistanis considering Afghanistan their strategic depth in a war with India. Now things have come a full circle. All these years it was the Madrasas (seminaries of Islamic theology) in Pakistan from where the Talibs (students of Islamic theology) were turned out to be fed into the Taliban of Afghanistan. Now these very Talibs are storming the streets of Pakistan baying for American blood and demanding the head of Pakistani President General Musharraf. Instead of streaming into Afghanistan as in the past; those already there are storming the border with Pakistan, which has been closed to prevent their entry.
In this context let us look at the outlines of the situation in Pakistan today and in the near future; and its implications for India and in general for the Global War on Terrorism:
Regular Pakistani Troops were a part of the Taliban Militia
Regular troops from the Pakistani army who drew their salaries from the Pakistani army fought inside Afghanistan as a part of the ragtag Taliban militia. The Northern Alliance reports that 1300 regular Pakistani troops were occupying the frontline facing Alliance troops in North Afghanistan.
The destruction of the Taliban's infrastructure in Afghanistan is being viewed with anger and frustration by the top echelons of the Pakistani army which was the architect of the Taliban and all its infrastructure.
General Mahmoud Ahmad, the ex-chief of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) who was recently removed by General Musharraf had prevented the General from visiting Afghanistan to negotiate with the Taliban, since he, alongwith the pro-Taliban Jihadi top brass of the Pakistani military did not want to dilute the Taliban's militancy and was itching for a showdown with the West. The mindset of this Jihadis in the Pakistani army is similar to the man on the street in Pakistan who is chanting the slogan "Death to America".
By the recent "reshuffle" President Musharraf has tried to clip the wings of these Jihadi sections of the Pakistani army.
As the Taliban faces defeat at the hands of the Americans and the Northern Alliance; the pro-Jihad sections of the Pakistani military will open up the border and let the defeated Taliban militiamen inside Pakistan
As the Taliban was defeated at the hands of the Americans and the Northern Alliance, it is these proJihad sections of the Pakistani military which opened up the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and let the defeated Taliban militiamen inside Pakistan. The clash at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is an early symptom of this.
These lumpen defeated Taliban militiamen will create havoc inside Pakistan by joining the anti-Musharraf street demonstrations. The present Pakistani regime foresees this. And that is why the Pakistani government has warned the Afghans who have so far entered Pakistan against participating in the antigovernment demonstrations.
Defeated Taliban militiamen would help the pro-jihadis in Pakistani army to overthrow the regime of President Musharraf
Some of these defeated Taliban militiamen will be pushed into Indian administered Kashmir by the Jihadi pro-Taliban elements in the Pakistani army to add fuel to the Islamic terrorism there. India can expect more suicide missions like the one that shook the Srinagar legislative Assembly. According to recent reports there is an increase in the firing at the LoC (Line of Control - effective India-Pakistan border in Kashmir) and infiltration into Indian Kashmir is on the increase.
But the greatest danger posed by these defeated Taliban militiamen would be to the internal security of Pakistan. They would cause violent unrest of civil war proportions which can be expected to lead to a military coup in Pakistan that would overthrow the regime of President Musharraf.
Defeated Taliban militiamen alongwith the pro-Jihad coup plotters of the Pakistan Army would swiftly start an undeclared war with India
All this will have implications for India in particular and for the ongoing American lead War on Terrorism. Without mincing too many words, we can say that the defeated Taliban militiamen alongwith the proJihad coup plotters of the Pakistan Army would swiftly start an undeclared war with India, with full scale attacks along the LoC and unprecedented insurgency inside Indian-administered Kashmir (and the rest of India too). Needless to say that reverses to this first flush of Pakistani attacks in Kashmir will be bolstered by a first strike using nuclear weapons by the rogue Pakistani army. North Indian cities could bear the brunt of these nuclear attacks.
The surprise reversal of his Afghanistan policy and jettisoning of the Taliban, by President Musharraf has put the possibility of the Indo-Pak nuclear war on hold, till President Musharraf is not overthrown
This dangerous but certain scenario could see the beginning of the world's first post-Hiroshima nuclear war. The result could be the nuclear decimation of large parts of North India and to a lesser extent of other parts of India. If India responds swiftly, in kind, to the first Pakistani nuclear attacks, then Pakistan could face complete decimation during the course of this war.
This could prophetically prove the US assertion the South Asia sits on a nuclear powder keg. A possibility of nuclear war that existed before September 11th has now increased manifold. Even before that fateful day, the declare Pakistani policy has been that if they lose a conventional war, they would use nuclear weapons. They have never committed themselves to a "no first use" policy for nuclear weapons, as India has done. So the danger of nuclear war between India and Pakistan which was always there has now only become more acute.
The surprise reversal of his Afghanistan policy and jettisoning of the Taliban, by President Musharraf has for the time being, put the possibility of the Indo-Pak nuclear war on hold. This holds till President Musharraf is not overthrown. But the day he is overthrown, we can safely predict a nuclear war between the two nations immediately after that.
If India is smart then it will keep its nuclear gunpowder dry and at the first hint of the President being overthrown, it would unilaterally launch a first strike nuclear attack on Pakistan as a self-saving measure
If India is smart then it will keep its nuclear gunpowder dry and at the first hint of President Musharraf being overthrown, it would unilaterally launch a first strike nuclear attack on Pakistan as a self-saving measure. We doubt that the Government of India can actually do this. But, when the calamity strikes, the Government of India cannot say that they had not been warned; now that we have filed this report!
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